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China has deployed its coast guard through the maritime area of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles near outlying Japan's territory as China escalates strains over the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding the island of Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard announced that its ships conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Senkaku, which are administered by Tokyo but also asserted as territory by Beijing.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation performed surveillance within the maritime jurisdiction of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation undertaken by the China coast guard to protect its sovereign claims,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

China and Japan have consistently clashed around the islands but the recent developments come amid an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, addressed lawmakers that if Beijing assaults the self-governing island of Taiwan it could trigger a armed reaction from Tokyo.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has indicated it demands a withdrawal from the Japanese official.

Taiwan's Position

China claims the island as its sovereign land and intends to annex it under what it terms “reunification”. It has not ruled out the military option. Taiwan’s government and people overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – choosing to preserve the status quo without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if necessary.

An attack or invasion by China would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, potentially involving the United States and other allies including Tokyo, which has territory just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Defense Operations

On the island, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had observed three dozen PLA planes, seven navy ships and one “official” ship, which was likely the maritime patrol, active near the island over the previous day.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to multiple UAVs flying between Taiwan and the Japan's territory off its north-east coast, appearing to go particularly close to Yonaguni. PLA movements there are not rare, but infrequent, and Beijing's defense operations in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been minimal in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said Beijing had been carrying out another “combined military exercise” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It added Taiwan had dispatched military assets to track the developments. Taiwan reports such Chinese patrols a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Tokyo has been experiencing increased strain from Beijing since Takaichi made her comments, with China’s consul general in Osaka prompting a formal protest from Tokyo by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry stated that any Tokyo's involvement would be certain to collapse.

Travel and Education Advisory

On Friday, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it provided no details.

Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be cancelled without penalty.

Adding to the tensions, China’s government on Sunday urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it described as an volatile safety situation.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a detrimental effect on academic institutions in Japan. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were studying in Japan last year, according to education statistics. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.

Media Response

Earlier this weekend, a official press commentary accused Takaichi of staging a political stunt that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a small-scale encounter; it would probably involve other powers, including the United States, and could quickly spiral into a major confrontation with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The administration in Taipei says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Officials in Tokyo have previously avoided discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also favoured by Tokyo’s main security ally, the United States.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “inevitable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its rhetoric towards the island.