Keir Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry
Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a coordinated initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an impending byelection.
Significant Obstacles in the Selection Procedure
Multiple members on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have apparently suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are keen to avert any future leadership challenge.
The Labour hierarchy is said to have sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
A number of sources also shared concerns about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.
The trade unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to launch a strong campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.
The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.
