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Only two days prior to the NYC mayoral election, Michael Lange issued a significant forecast – not just the winner overall, but precinct by precinct. Lange, a political analyst who grew up in New York City, has spent more than ten years in left-leaning activism and has become something of a well-known figure this year for his deep dives into municipal statistics and voter surveys.

He published his extremely precise prediction map – accurately predicting that Zohran Mamdani would win although failed to predict Andrew Cuomo’s solid showing – on his Substack, his platform. Lange has a flair for witty coinages. He highlighted, as an example, the divide between the progressive stronghold, stretching from one neighborhood to Bushwick to a third locale, where he forecasted (correctly) that Mamdani would triumph by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on affluent parts of Manhattan. There, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal surpass the New York Times” in audience and most voters favored Cuomo, who ran as a conservative-courting independent.

Voting Day Patterns and Unexpected Results

What was your election night?

I had to do that because they were adding approximately 200K votes into the system every few minutes! I was actually a little nervous initially: Mamdani was ahead the early vote by a dozen percentage points, but came large groups of ballots that came in later and the advantage dropped from 12 to 8%. I was worried.

Understand, there was a world where election day turned out kind of poorly for him, where Cuomo would have essentially doubling his votes from the Democratic primary. However the winner added half a million supporters to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He went out and massively expanded his base from the first round.

Coalition Building

How did Mamdani get additional support from?

He assembled the alliance that the left always wanted to build: diverse racially, it’s young, it’s renters and it’s people facing cost pressures. He improved significantly with Black and Hispanic voters, everyday New Yorkers, compared to the primary. Additionally he further maximized his base of left-leaning activists, young leftists, and immigrant groups. Victory required without expanding his appeal.

He created the coalition that progressives long aimed for: diverse, young, tenants and residents squeezed by affordability

Additionally, there were a number of Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It is a real thing, confined to working-class Latinos, south Asians and Muslims. Voters in ethnic enclaves that supported the former president last year went for the progressive this year. But it’s not that he was winning over white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Turnout and Effects

One of the big stories of the night was the record participation. Who did that help?

Each candidate. Participation was much greater than anticipated. I thought it could exceed two million, but it reached 2.3 million – which is a lot of darn voters. There was a substantial opposition group, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was equally driven, and that was enough to secure victory.

You forecasted he’d get over half the ballots. Is he likely for that?

Currently you would say he’s likely to get over half. He’s at 50.4% but remain probably 200,000 votes uncounted as of Wednesday morning. Thus it’s not certain, but I think probable, and I hope he achieves it because then none can claim Sliwa was a disruptor.

GOP Decline

Curtis Sliwa, the conservative contender, was another surprise. His support plummeted.

He didn’t win any district in any borough. Not even Tottenville in the borough, similar to an highly conservative neighborhood. That truly surprised me. Cuomo kept very white areas, affluent zones and very religiously Jewish areas, and plus gained many Republicans on Staten Island who had a high participation. I think occurred significant tactical voting by GOP voters. This happened prior to Trump endorsed for Cuomo, but that definitely helped. It could have even turned the tide if Mamdani’s coalition failed to expand.

Progressive Strongholds

Regarding your much mentioned left-wing base – did backing for the candidate overwhelming in those areas of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think existed some weakening of the commie corridor in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have more older white ethnic folks. There, instance, the property owners and residents all went for the independent. So there existed some opposition. But no, mostly the commie corridor is another huge reason why Mamdani won – he was polling between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.

Community Support

In the lead-up to the election there was coverage on if Mamdani was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Any indication that he succeeded?

Exist neighborhoods with a lot of secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he did well. However in the affluent districts like the Upper East Side, his Middle East stance was influential there. Similarly in the moderate communities like Queens neighborhoods, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they all leaned the independent. And also, there are newcomers from the former Soviet Union in the borough, who were pretty staunchly Cuomo. Therefore it’s unclear if there were major surprises on this one, but he did hold more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and including sections of the Upper West Side by big margins.

Long-Term Significance

Has Mamdani rewritten what New York represents in politics? Will commie corridor become a launch pad for progressive contenders?

Absolutely, it’s not accidental that key political leaders from progressives hail from a handful of neighborhoods in the boroughs. I’m sure that there will be more of that – candidates will come from these areas to be promoted to higher office.

However I think that each urban center in America can have their own commie corridor. Urban places are the epicenters of leftwing power in America – because they’re young, people rent and they are places where people are crushed by the disparities we face.